PakStox Outlook

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reduced the policy rate by 200 basis points to 17.5%, citing a faster-than-expected decline in both headline and core inflation due to delayed energy price hikes and favorable global oil and food prices. This marks the third consecutive rate cut after maintaining a steep policy rate of 22% for a year. Key developments include falling global oil prices, stable foreign exchange reserves of $9.5 billion, improved inflation expectations, and declining government security yields. However, the agricultural sector faces challenges, particularly in cotton production. The MPC expects real GDP growth for FY25 to remain between 2.5% and 3.5%. Workers' remittances and export earnings have improved, while the current account deficit is contained within 0-1% of GDP. Fiscal consolidation has improved Pakistan's debt-to-GDP ratio, falling to 67.2%. However, to meet fiscal targets, tax collection must increase significantly...

Maple Leaf Cement Factory Limited (PSX: MLCF) - Annual Financial Results as of June 30, 2024 For the year ending June 2024, MLCF earned a net income of Rs. 5 per share. No dividend was declared. Revenue registered a 7% increase. Gross profit increased by 28%. Profit before tax decreased by 3%. Profit after tax increased by 17%. Financial charges saw a significant rise, increasing by 50%. The tax rate for the year remained at 41%, compared to 51% last year. In the last quarter (Q4 Jun 2024), MLCF earned a net income of Rs. 0.9 per share. The profit after tax in the last quarter increased by 5% over the average of the last four quarters. MLCF is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.8. The company has a 0.66% exposure in the KSE100 Index, 0.94% in the KSE30 Index, and 1.35% in the KMI30 Index. MLCF holds 7.5% stake in Next Capital and 7.5% stake in Pioneer Cement (PSX:PIOC), classifying these as short-term investments. Kohinoor Textile Mills (PSX:KTML) is the holding compan...

Brent crude oil futures dropped over 3.4% to below $70 per barrel on Tuesday, approaching their lowest level since November 2021. This helps in bringing inflation down and strengthens policy rate cuts expectations in the next MPC meeting of the State Bank of Pakistan, OPEC has once again lowered its global oil demand outlook, marking the second such revision in just two months. The organization now anticipates a daily demand increase of 2 million barrels in 2024, a decrease of 80,000 barrels from its prior estimate. For the year 2025, OPEC has reduced its forecast to 1.7 million barrels, 40,000 barrels lower than previous projections. This downward adjustment is largely attributed to weaker oil consumption in China, particularly as the surge in electric vehicle sales dampens demand for traditional fuels. Moreover, the possibility of OPEC+ increasing production in December further exacerbates the situation, with analysts suggesting a potential oil surplus in 2025.

In the last 5 trading sessions, the KSE100 Index has gained a total of 410 points. Here is a snapshot of major gainers and losers. This week, foreign corporates sold heavily at the PSX, with a net sale of $6.5 million for the week. With today's net selling of over $3.7 million, foreign corporates have become net sellers of a cumulative USD 1.71 million over the last 30 trading sessions. The local mutual funds on the other hand changed their recent trend and were net buyers of $ 1.2 million. But this net buying was primarily because of their net buying on the last day of this trading week.

JS Momentum Factor Index (JSMFI) has been recomposed. See Ann. This Index is highly concentrated with only 10 constituents with half of them having more than 83% of weight. The Index even contains the newly formed PIA Holding Company. JS Momentum Factor Exchange Traded Fund is based on this Index. See its performance on PSX site. Kohat Cement Company Limited (PSX:KOHC) has approved  buy-back of up to 12 million of its shares. See Ann. This makes up to slightly over 6% of the the issued capital of the KOHC. The purchases will be made between 23 Oct 2024 and 12 April 2025. Symmetry Group Limited ( PSX:SYM) Corporate Briefing Session FY 2024 - Presentation. Download

Brent below $75 - down 4% A recent release of economic data from China has intensified fears that the country's economic growth, particularly in the context of its substantial oil consumption, may not rebound in 2024. This concern is further fueled by the significant decline in key indicators of domestic factory demand in August, which surpassed initial projections. The price of Brent crude oil has fallen significantly in recent days. This decline was triggered by a news report suggesting that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+) might increase oil production due to a disruption in Libyan oil production. However, the price drop accelerated when news emerged that the Libyan oil disruption was nearing resolution. This means that the initial concern about a potential oil supply shortage, which had led to higher prices, was now alleviated.

Attock Petroleum Limited (PSX:APL) has reported its annual financial results for the year ending June 30, 2024. The company reported a net income of Rs. 111.1 per share and declared a total cash dividend of Rs. 27.5 per share. On an annual basis, revenue increased by 11%, while gross profit decreased by 15%. Profit before tax rose by 12%, primarily due to a significant increase in finance income, which was 2.85 times higher than the previous year. The profit after tax increased by 11%. The tax rate remained steady at 39%, consistent with the previous year.