PakStox Outlook

KSE 100 Index closed at 44,444 up 1.5% adding 658 points despite increase in policy rate by 250bps.  The market gave a resounding yes to the Supreme Court verdict yesterday of restoring National Assembly and making way for political process. It was a broad based rally taking all sectors with it. Volatility in the market was low and the KSE100 Index closed in its upper band. Overall market volumes increased from 141 mn shares in last session to 227 mn shares. Foreigners were net sellers of $2.26mn mainly in Banks and 'Oil&gas'. Overseas Pakistanis were net sellers. In 'locals' all were positive except 'Insurance'. Today even Mutual Funds were marginally net buyers. In YTD Mutual Funds have been major net sellers to tune of $58mn. see details. Rupee also appreciated by Rs. 3.5, after having faced a panic bout against dollar. Rupee today closed at 184.68 against yesterday closing of 188.18. See details

Yesterday the Supreme Court of Pakistan gave its verdict on the dissolution of the National Assembly following a Speaker disputed ruling that declared those supporting the No confidence motion against the PM, as traitors and part of a conspiracy to de-seat the Government.  The Court Declared; a) ruling of Speaker Unconstitutional, b) PM's advise to President Unconstitutional, c) Dissolution of NA by President Unconstitutional, d) Vote of No-confidence remains intact & its 7th day will be on April 9th, e) Speaker to call NA session on April 9th, cannot change date. Here is the full verdict in pdf . An important session of the National Assembly was called on Sunday (3rd April 2022) to vote on the no confidence motion. This was after almost a week of intense street gatherings and agitation by the Government as well as by the oppositions. 

KSE100 Index today lost 324 points closing down 0.74% at 43,787 . Major contributors to the index were banks. Today political uncertainty continued as Supreme Court of Pakistan hears a key case to decide on the fate of political process,  In addition to that increase in cut off yield in yesterday's T Bill auction taking 6 Months T Bill rate to 13.25%, also impacted the market negatively. Today's trading volume was better than yesterday's showing some bargain hunting. As expected, the SBP held an emergent meeting of MPC and increased policy rate by 2.5% to 12.25%. See SBP Tweet . Foreign reserves declined by 5.8%. See details . Rupee under severe speculative pressure and touched 189. Pakistan Eurobond offer highest yield in the world now. See this tweet . I doubt if a lot of volume traded on this though. Supreme Court of Pakistan is about to announce its verdict on constitutional impasse created by a wrong and mischievous ruling of deputy speaker sitting for the Speaker...

KSE100 Index closed at 44,111 up 0.42% adding 183 points. Another day of political limbo as the case of dissolution of the National Assembly drags on. This vacuum is seriously impacting the economy. Rupee today weakened further and now touching 187 to a dollar. Another negative that might impact the market tomorrow is the rising rates in todays T Bills auction . In today's T-Bill auction, cut-off yields were up by 60-80bps. 6 Months T Bill cut off was 13.25%. Today Crude dropped by 4% to $97 level on news that IEA would release 120 million barrels of oil to cool prices. Also demand appears to be weak.

  43,928   +26 PSX today held well despite continuing political uncertainty. KSE100 Index touched high of 44,289 and traded in positive traded till mid day. The fact that the Index in the end recovered intra-day losses indicates that the market faces no selling pressure. KMI30 (shariah compliant index) however ended in red. Traded volume reduced further to 115mn shares. Traded value even more. KSE30 Heat Map See Annual Report of Dawood Hercules (DAWH). Dividend and asset value but low liquidity. Supreme Court of Pakistan hearing constitutional petition against a 'ruling' of speaker of the house that resulted in proroguing the assembly and giving opportunity to the PM who was facing no-confidence, to dissolve the NA assembly. Today was second day of hearing and has been adjourned till tomorrow. Petition of such import should have been decided same day as it was open and shut case. Cases of such nature are primarily reflection of power play behind the scene, and are never decid...

43,902 -1,250 (-2.77%) Was straight down with hardly any respite. Trading volume was however low i.e. just 170mn shares compared to 388mn previous day, indicating that most decided to hold instead of selling in panic. Cement and Banking sectors were major contributors to the decline. Not much Foreign selling however. Mutual Funds also just marginally net sellers. Individuals did some bargain hunting and were net buyers. Read More So PSX is not selling higher selling pressure. This is a good sign, and as earning reporting season starts PSX may again find its footing. But all eyes on the Supreme Court of Pakistan whether it can uphold sanctity of law and due process.  Going forward things dicey. Any coming government has to deal with continuation of IMF program and take painful decisions like increasing oil price. The previous PTI government had not changed oil prices in line with international oil prices, most probably anticipating their ouster. If an interim government comes into p...