PakStox Outlook

On Friday, 4th October 2024, the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) experienced another day of positive momentum. The KSE-100 Index opened up by 83 points, briefly lost 127 points, but then surged ahead, gaining 884 points and closing with a strong net gain of 810 points at 83,532. This follows the previous day's gain of 755 points. Over the past five trading sessions, the KSE-100 Index has accumulated a total of 2,240 points. Year to date, the index has surged by 34%, reflecting strong market performance in 2024. Despite a brief pause in foreign fund selling yesterday, today 'foreign corporates' were net sellers of over $7 million. Mutual funds were the primary buyers, limiting gains to heavyweight index stocks. Major Gainers Today: AIRLINK (Air Link Communication): PKR 143.0 ▲ 6.4% PPL (Pak Petroleum): PKR 118.6 ▲ 6.4% PSO (Pakistan State Oil): PKR 176.6 ▲ 4.9% NRSL (Nimir Resins): PKR 22.1 ▲ 4.8% SAIF (Saif Textile): PKR 11.3 ▲ 4.1% Major Gainers in the Last 5 Trading Session...

PPL | Pakistan Petroleum. The Chairman laments in the annual report that ..."lower offtakes from Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL), due to more than required volumes of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) in the system, negatively impacted net production by around 20 MMscfd." See PPL Annual Report . For excerpts from the report see this note. OGDC |  OGDCL’s average daily net saleable crude oil, gas and LPG production clocked in at 33,117 barrels, 717 MMcf and 717 tons in comparison to 32,478 barrels, 764 MMcf and 720 Tons in the preceding year. See Annual Report . See Excerpts.  In 2024, OGDC's finance and other income dropped to PKR 41 billion from PKR 154.billion in 2023, comprising 14% of PBT compared to 40.32% last year. The 2023 figure was elevated by one-off gains from a finance lease modification and exchange rate movements. If the Pakistani Rupee strengthens in the future, it could negatively impact OGDC's income further. GGGL | Ghani Global Glass Ltd. To ...

On Thursday, 3rd October 2024, the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) experienced strong upward momentum. The KSE-100 Index opened with a gain of 109 points, rising an impressive 992 points intraday without any losses, and ultimately closing at 82,722, adding 755 points overall. It was straight up for the market throughout the day. More than half of the points in the KSE100 Index were contributed by FFC that rose 8.2%. Recall that merger of FFBL and FFC has been approved. This follows the previous day's gain of 162 points. Over the last five trading sessions, the KSE-100 Index has accumulated a total gain of 1,064 points. Year-to-date, the index has surged by 32%, reflecting continued positive performance in 2024. Today’s major gainer s on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) were led by Nishat (Chunian) Limited (NCL), which surged 10.0% to close at 28.3. TPL Trakker Ltd (TPLT) followed with an 8.7% rise, closing at 9.0, while Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) gained 8.2%, closing at 243.5. ...

 "Pakistan’s textile sector faced ongoing challenges, primarily due to sluggish recovery in global economies, stringent monetary policies aimed at curbing high inflation, and rising energy costs. Textile exports grew marginally by 0.9% year-on-year (YoY) to USD 16.7 Billion. Within the sector, Knitwear exports declined by 0.7% to USD 4.4 Billion, while Ready-Made Garments saw a modest increase of 2.1% to USD 3.6 Billion. Cotton production surged to a record 10.22 Million bales, up from 4.9 Million bales in FY 2023, however, cotton arrivals in Pakistan plunged to a 40-year low as of September 15, 2024, down by 64%, according to the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA). Total arrivals this year stand at 1.434 Million bales compared to 3.933 Million bales during the same period last year. The sector struggled with high costs for imported raw materials, the phasing out of the Export Finance Scheme, elevated interest rates, weak external demand, and heightened competition from Ch...

AGTL | Al-Ghazi Tractors Limited launches a new 85 HP Tractor. link PSO imported 105 LNG vessels, totalling 6,369 thousand tons, a 6.9% increase from the previous year, See Annual Report 2024.  "PSO is joining forces with Frontier Works Organization (FWO) and Inter State Gas Systems (ISGS) to launch the White Oil Pipeline initiative." established establishment. FEROZ | Ferozsons Laboratories Limited has partnered with Gilead Sciences to manufacture and sell generic lenacapavir in developing countries. This will help increase access to this HIV medication in regions with limited resources. Link TPL | TPL Corp Limited announced a loss of Rs 1.39 billion (loss per share of Rs 5.23, last year Rs -3.23) for the year ending June 2024. Operating income was just Rs 144 million and financial charges were over Rs 1.48 billion. See P&L. TRG has issued its annual report. This is what Directors' Report states about the loss. " The most significant item on our balance sheet...

'No changes to production policy and maintaining the plan to start raising output in December.', the OPEC+ decided in its joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting (JMMC) held on Wednesday, with the ministers refraining from making any changes to production policy, maintaining the plan to start raising output in December.  "The JMMC emphasized the critical importance of achieving full conformity and compensation. It will continue to monitor adherence to the production adjustments agreed upon at the 37th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (ONOMM) held on 2 June 2024. The Committee will also continue to monitor the additional voluntary production adjustments announced by some participating OPEC and nonOPEC countries as agreed upon in the 52nd JMMC held on 1 February 2024. Furthermore, the Committee will continuously assess market conditions."

On Wednesday, 2nd October 2024, it was a volatile session at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). The KSE-100 Index opened 98 points lower but later gained 556 points during the day. However, it also experienced a loss of 275 points before closing at 81,967, resulting in a net gain of 162 points for the day. This follows the previous day's significant gain of 690 points. Over the last five trading sessions, the KSE-100 Index has recorded a cumulative gain of 281 points. Year-to-date, the index has surged by 31%, reflecting strong market performance throughout 2024. Foreign corporates continued to be net sellers at the PSX, but the consistent buying by local mutual funds helped the market absorb the selling pressure. This dynamic has contributed to the market’s volatility. See this note on this selling. Today again foreign corporates made a substantial net selling of USD 5.7 million at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). Over the past 30 trading sessions, foreign corporates have cum...

Everything about TRG is convoluted and roundabout, making it surprising how the company remains listed and actively traded. The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) lists TRG under the 'Technology and Communication' sector. Initially, TRG had obtained a venture capital license from the SECP under NBFC rules. After holding this license for ten years, the company forfeited it. Currently, TRG states that its primary activity, through its associate The Resource Group International Limited (TRGIL), is to invest in a portfolio focused on the technology and IT-enabled services sectors. TRG’s entire asset base consists of just one company, The Resource Group International Limited (TRGIL), registered in Bermuda. TRG owns 68.8% of TRGIL and holds a 100% beneficial interest in it. However, due to existing agreements, TRG cannot appoint the majority of TRGIL’s board members or control more than 50% of its voting power. While TRG has frequently issued rights, it has only paid a meaningful cash div...

Oil prices have not reacted strongly upwards as Iran launched around 400 ballistic missiles towards Israel on the eve of its imminent ground attack on Lebanon. In recent months oil speculators have remained relatively sanguine despite the increasing Middle East war, with oil prices having fallen more than 10% in the past three months. The declining oil prices have impacted inflation. Inflation has cooled across advanced economies in recent months, paving the way for interest rate cuts by policymakers at the world’s top central banks. The Iran attack could change the equation though; Iran, a major oil producer, supplies approximately 3% of the world's daily oil output (3 million barrels) despite Western sanctions. Its influence over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for oil and gas tankers, is significant. Iran also exerts control over the Red Sea through its support of Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have targeted shipping. Other major oil and gas exporters, including Saudi Arab...

Foreign corporates continued their selling spree today, net selling $6.2 million worth of Pakistani equities. Since September 1st, they have sold over $59.77 million, representing approximately 60% of their net purchases for the entire year up until August. This selling wave is largely attributed to the recently announced reclassification of Pakistan from a secondary emerging to a frontier market status, effective September 23, 2024, as per the FTSE Equity Country Classification framework. See this . and this . Despite the significant selling by foreign corporates, the PSX continued to exhibit strong performance. This selling pressure has been largely absorbed by local mutual funds. As interest rates decline, fund investors have been shifting from money market funds to equities, providing a supportive environment for the market. Interestingly, the foreign corporates' selling, driven by the market reclassification, has inadvertently provided much-needed liquidity to the market. More...

On Tuesday, 1st October 2024, the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) saw a strong performance, with the KSE-100 Index opening up 85 points. Throughout the day, the index gained an impressive 866 points intraday without any losses and eventually closed a t 81,805 points, marking a gain of 690 points. This follows a previous day’s loss of 178 points. Over the last five trading sessions, the KSE-100 Index has accumulated a total gain of 321 points, signaling a positive trend in the market. Today's major gainers on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) included Kohinoor Power (KOHP), which rose by 12.8% to close at 7.7, followed by Agritech Limited (AGL) and Lalpir Power (LPL), both of which gained 10%, closing at 37.0 and 19.9 respectively. Waves Home Appliances (WAVESAPP) and Power Cement (POWER) also saw notable gains, increasing by 8.8% each, with closing prices of 7.9 and 5.5. Over the last five trading sessions, Crescent Steel (CSAP) led the major gainers with a remarkable 23.2% increase,...

Gold prices rose on Tuesday after falling for two days due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Reports suggested that Lebanese troops withdrew from the border with Israel as an Israeli ground invasion seemed likely after Israel killed Hezbollah's leader. This escalation increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold. However, gains were limited by Fed Chair Powell's comments that the recent large interest rate cut should not signal future aggressive cuts. He hinted at smaller future cuts of a quarter percentage point. The odds of another 50-basis-point rate cut in November have now dropped to 37% from over 50% last week.

The oil price rally has reversed after reports that Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest producer, is looking to accelerate the unwinding of its oil production cuts. The Brent forward curve has fluctuated in September, going from backwardation to flat and then back to backwardation. The oil futures markets remain bearish, with more money managers holding short positions than long positions in Brent futures. Saudi Arabia is ready to abandon its unofficial price target of $100 a barrel and increase output, signaling its resignation to lower oil prices. The kingdom is now committed to bringing back its production as planned on December 1, regardless of market conditions or oil prices.  1st October 2024 read 

On  Monday, 30 September 2024, the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed a mixed trading session. The index closed at 81,114, marking a net loss of 178 points for the day. The KSE100 Index opened with a slight decline of 21 points. It gained an intraday high of 207 points but experienced a sharp drop, losing 918 points at one point during the session.  Thereafter the market recovered sustaining selling pressure. Over the past five trading sessions, the KSE100 Index has shed a cumulative 736 points, reflecting a continued downward trend in the market. Foreign corporates continued their selling spree at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), recording a net sell of  over USD 4 million. Over the last 30 trading sessions, foreign corporates have made cumulative net sales amounting to USD 51.69 million. In contrast, mutual funds were heavy buyers, making a significant net purchase of  over USD 4,59 million today. This marks a substantial shift in market activity, with mutua...