PakStox Outlook

OGDC earned Rs. 9.7 per share in the second quarter ending December 2022. The company also announced a cash dividend of Rs. 2.25 per share. OGDC's twelve-month trailing EPS is now Rs. 37.2 and a cash dividend of Rs. 7.5, translating into a compelling PE of 2.3 and a dividend yield of 8.6%. Profit after tax of Rs. 41.7 billion for the second quarter was less by 21% over the first quarter on lower production, higher costs, and lower other income.  Comparing with Ist quarter ending Sep22; Sales declined by 8.6% and gross profit declined by 14% over Ist quarter, Other operating expenses increased by 1.5 times, Other income halved, negatively impacting Profit before tax over 26%. This is despite the higher spread in crude and the favorable exchange rate. Declining production is a cause for concern For the HY ending December 22, crude oil sales made up 46% of total revenue, and natural gas sales made up 43%. OGDC: Oil & Gas Devl Corp ttm Dec22 Sep22 Jun22 Mar22 Dec21 Q2 - 2023 Q1 - 2...

OGDC is trading at Rs. 86.88 (market close Mar 10, 2023) down 3.14% in one year compared to 4.7% decline on KSE100 Index. OGDC share price had made a 52-week high of Rs. 109.8. The scrip is trading at a very low earning multiple of 2.3 and price to book at less than half. Its twelve months trailing yield is 8.6%. OGDC is one of the few of PSX listed companies that pay cash dividend every quarter. The Company never gave stock dividend. Share Price (Rs.) 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year 86.88 -14.03% 20.82% -3.14%

OGDC Profit in HY Dec 2022, boosted by higher international crude oil prices in comparison to the corresponding period last year.  Average basket price of crude oil was US$ 93.53/barrel against US$ 75.22/barrel in the comparative period. Furthermore, rise in average exchange rate from Rs 169.98/US$ to Rs 223.85/US$ lent strength to the financials.  In addition to the above, the Company's profitability during the period under review was positively impacted by increase in interest income on investment and bank deposits and share of profit in associates. 

Oil and Gas Development Company Limited was incorporated in Pakistan in 1997.  The Company is the market leader in E&P sector of Pakistan holds the largest exploration acreage and portfolio.  For Half year ending Dec 2022, OGDC contributed  46% and 29% and 37% towards Pakistan's total oil, natural gas production. The Company was listed on Karachi Stock Exchange on 2004, and trades under the PSX:Ticker 'OGDC'. Moreover, Global Depository Shares (GDR) of OGDC are listed on London Stock Exchange.  Free float of  OGDC is just 15%. The Government of Pakistan holds 85% of the company. The Market Cap of OGDC as of March 2023 was Rs. 374 billion (USD 1.34 billion).   Investments: 

On Friday Dow Jones again declined m ore than 1% to close at 31,909 down 345 points. This week ^DJI lost 4.6% (1547 points). worst week since June. Silicon Valley Bank collapse intensifies sell off.  SVB collapse is a major U.S. bank collapse,  the biggest bank failure since 2008.Several bank stocks were repeatedly halted on Friday, including First Republic, PacWest and crypto-focused Signature Bank.  SVB was a vital lifeline and conduit  to Wall Street finance, for some biotech companies, especially smaller, less-tested startups. SVB also held some of the companies’ cash on hand. As a result, the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF slumped 3.9%   February jobs report gave some hints th at inflation could be slowing. Payrolls increased more than expected, but gain in wages is smaller-than-expected, raising hopes that the Federal Reserve to rethink its aggressive stance on rate hikes.

Silicon Valley Bank could mark t he 2nd largest bank failure in U.S. history.  SVB Financial Group (SVB) reassure clients, after a capital raise caused a steep 60 percent collapse in its share value, wiping out over $80 billion in value from bank shares.  Bitcoin below 20k. US stocks and crypto have now lost over $2 trillion in market cap in under 24 hours.  Oil breaks upward trend (down 1%) as recession fears off set weak dollar. Read More. Barclay’s has slashed its Brent forecast by $6 and its WTI forecast by $7 for this year, now expecting $92 and $87 respectively. The bank believes the oil market is in a surplus of around 800,000 bpd currently, which will turn into a 500,000 bpd deficit in the second half of 2023. 

ATRL: Second Quarter (Dec22) Earning Released.  EPS Rs. 75.6.  No dividend was announced. Share Price 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Rs. 166.16 -0.76% 4.95% 37.94% Twelve  trailing months EPS now Rs. 221. Compare this with ATRL market price of Rs. 166 per share. Attock Refinery Ltd 2Q23 1Q23 4Q22 3Q22 Profit After Taxation (PKR Million) 8,056 7,303 6,144 2,101 EPS-Total (PKR) 75.6 68.5 57.6 19.7 Cash Dividend/Share (PKR) 0 0 10 0 ATRL earned a Net Income of Rs. 8056 million for the second quarter ending Dec 22, up 10.4% on previous quarter (Sep22) and staggering 5.6 times on same quarter last year. Revenue however declined by 9.3% over previous quarter (Sep22), though Gross profit increased by 9.8%. The company increased revenue by 66% compared to same quarter last year (Dec21). The profitability of the company has been boosted by 'Spreads between prices of products and crude oil which started to improve last year maintained the same trend during the second quarter of the cu...

In his  Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress,  Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell  warned that the central bank is ready to increase the pace of interest rate hikes if incoming data exceed expectations . And that,  "...the latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated."  He said that,  "d espite the slowdown in growth, the labor market remains extremely tight, and  inflation well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent". "The unemployment rate was 3.4 percent in January, its lowest level since 1969.  Although inflation has been moderating in recent months, the process of getting inflation back down to 2 percent has a long way to go and is likely to be bumpy." "If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes," Powell said in his...

SBP raised PKR 1,570bn against a target of PKR 1,800bn 3M cut-off: 20.9996%, +105bps 6M cut-off yields: 20.8498%, +95bps  12M cut-off yields: 20.9899%, +120bps SBP received bids of PKR 2,447bn.

In his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that the central bank is ready to increase the pace of interest rate hikes if incoming data exceed expectations. And that, "...the latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated." He said that, "despite the slowdown in growth, the labor market remains extremely tight, and inflation well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent". "The unemployment rate was 3.4 percent in January, its lowest level since 1969. Although inflation has been moderating in recent months, the process of getting inflation back down to 2 percent has a long way to go and is likely to be bumpy." "If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes," Powell said in his testimony...