PakStox Outlook

This week KSE100 rose by 3.68% closing at 45152. This weekly performance erased losses sustained in first two weeks of this month taking monthly performance positive by 1.05%. Now Index is in gain YTD by 1.25%. The index still has to reach 46340 to cover losses it sustained from 2nd week of February though.  This is a positive monthly performance is heartening considering Ukraine war, record high oil prices, extreme political turbulence at national level, weakening rupee, higher inflation, declining reserves, and stalled IMF negotiations for next tranche.  Kibor also kept inching upwards (now at 12.5%) after higher cut off at Tbill and PIB auction. This month SBP had kept policy rate unchanged at 9.75% - a decision, that as SBP had indicated in its statement, may have to be revisited. 'Foreigners' kept selling in 'Banks' intensively and the this week alone net selling in 'Banks' by them reached $13.88mn. Selling by 'foreigners' had almost come to an end ...

KSE100 Index closed at 44,929 up 1.33% adding 591 points. Another day of strong performance by PSX as the change of Government within sight. Today's increase has taken index in positive territory YTD recouping all losses sustained in March. Today market went straight up with low volatility and closed at its highest for the day.  This rally is fairly broad based. Index is still 2.6% down from the level it had reached on 2nd Feb. For the month of March the gain is over 1%. Lets be content with that for the time being considering turbulent political situation. 'Foreigners' kept selling in 'Banks'. Today net selling around $2.5mn.  There is no selling pressure from any other local market participants. Mutual Funds however have not come back to the market yet in a way to affect the trend. Good market volume today of    415mn shares up almost 20%. More erosion of Foreign Reserves with SBP.  Now down 19% in a week. Rupee down to 183.4 to a dollar. See data in this tw...

PSX held well today considering a historic day of  political activity. KSE100 Index closed at 44,338 down 101 points. The fact that the market recovered substantially after having broken 44k level is a good sign and positive performance.  Trading activity today was less than yesterday. There was again selling in 'Banks' from 'foreigners'.  Yesterday there was substantial decline in future exposure. In general the market appears to be in sound shape. On political front it now clear that this Government is out. Expect to see a good market performance tomorrow. Oil again on the rise after decline for three days. Brent currently trading at $114.2

PSX  continued the strong momentum it had built mid day yesterday. KSE100 today hardly saw any pull back intra day and closed up  505   points at   44,439 (+1.15%).  The Market is primarily reacting to absence of selling pressure from any quarter.  In the current month two big drops were because of punting done by Mutual Funds against the backdrop of Ukraine situation and oil prices. In both cases market did not decline substantially afterwards for Mutual Funds to make good on the bet. Market position is not highly leveraged now. Lately 'foreigners' have been selling in 'Banks' after FATF ruling but major selling is not coming from them anymore. It is no small matter that despite PSX being a small market, the market participants had absorbed more than $440mn selling by 'foreigners' last year. Trading  volume also increased by more than 100% on yesterday. Value traded was about 50% up.

See today's performance of my Model Portfolio: Part1/2 Part2/2

KMI30 today:  Heat Map

PSX Today A strong recovery at PSX today. KSE100 Index rose 382 pints to close at 43,934 up 0.88%. Although the market was weak in initial two hours and had lost over 250 points, but made consistent broad-based recovery afterwards. traded volume was lower than Friday. Total share traded remained 131mn shares compared to 161 mn shares on Friday last. Cement sector today was the star contributing 113 points to the index. In this the biggest chunk of 61 points was contributed by Lucky Cement. Cements stocks are at historic lows on declining margins as energy prices soar. Valuations are attractive though and the industry has shown that it can pass on the higher cost. Today was first day after roll over week. Settlement issues normally linger on. But todays sharp recovery reflects successful roll over. Market is not highly leveraged at this stage. Future counters have mostly dried up. For several weeks the market was giving clear signals of facing no selling pressure. Day end trading figure...