PakStox Outlook

SBP held policy rate unchanged at 22% sighting higher inflation. Revised rates of National Saving Schemes have registered some increase. Pakistan to discuss Extended Fund Facility with IMF next month. Pakistan to Tap China for $300 Million Debut Panda Bonds. Gold at historic highs as Fed remain committed to 3 rate cuts this year. The Bank of Japan has ended eight years of negative interest rates, representing the country's first interest rate increase in nearly two decades. Bank of England holds interest rate at 16-year high. Bitcoin had a rough week. Despite reaching a new all-time high of $73,808 on Thursday, March 14th, it ultimately closed the week lower. Currently 64500. WTI around $82 and Brent below $87, remaining at elevated level. Dow Jones just below 40k. US 10 Year Bond at 4.2%. DXY at 104.4 increasing over last week.

  Foreign Portfolio Investment at Pakistan Stock Exchange (12th Week) Foreign corporates remain bullish on Pakistan throughout the week, with net buying totaling over $2.8 million. The pace seems to have increased, especially after the IMF's announcement of having reached a staff-level agreement with Pakistan in the middle of the week. Overseas Pakistanis, however, ended the week with net selling of over $0.8 million. Overseas Pakistanis sold a massive amount of over $1.8 million just a day before the IMF announcement. However, since then, they have been net buyers at the Pakistan Stock Exchange for the rest of the week. See Data

In general a mix performance this week. The oil sector remained under pressure, with PPL declining by 5%, OGDC down by 4.6%, and SNGP by 3.5%. Lucky Cement was also under pressure, declining by 3.6% on a weekly basis amidst a general decline in the cement sector. In the banking sector, Habib Bank experienced the most significant decline at 7.6%, adjusted for payout. Systems Ltd also experienced major declines, down by 3.46% for the week. As for gainers, MCB and BAFL gained more than 3%, while FFC and Engro were up more than 2%. TRG also reversed its declining trend, rising by more than 1.6% for the week.

 Policy Rate and IMF Deal This week, the PSX remained generally stable and in the green zone, in contrast to last week. The KSE100 Index added more than 300 points, closing above the 65k level at 65,151. During the week, the Index reached a high above the 66k level but failed to maintain it. The last two days of the week KSE100 Index had negative closing. The highlight of the week was the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) holding its Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Monday evening. It maintained its policy rate at 22%, as widely expected. The market did not react negatively to this and even regained its bullish tone. The market was generally feeling bullish about the IMF deal, so it took the unchanged rate in its stride. On Wednesday, the IMF announced reaching a staff-level agreement with Pakistan.

Financial Results Year Ending Dec 2023   IGIHL announced an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of Rs. 9.24 compared to Rs. 6.39 last year, registering an increase of over 44%. IGIHL also announced a final Cash Dividend of 40%. This is in addition to an interim 20% cash dividend. IGIHL is a holding company IGI Life Insurance that is quoted on Pakistan Stock Exchange under the symbol IGIL. The entire revenue of IGIHL, the holding company, consists of dividend income. For the current year, this revenue increased by 15% over last year. Packages Ltd (PKGS) holds over 10.5% shares of IGIHL. In addition, Syed Babar Ali controls over 46% shares directly or indirectly. IGIHL is trading at Rs 115 per share. Download Year 2023 Earning Release

Foreign Corporates were Net buyers of a good amount of $1.14 million today as PSX failed to maintain initial gains and KSE100 Index closed down 314 breaking 66k level. Even Overseas Pakistan were net buyers. Just two days ago Overseas Pakistan were net seller of a massive amount of $1.84 million.

 Earning Release - Annual Dec 2023 IGI Life Insurance Limited (PSX: IGIL) has delivered robust financial results for the year 2023, characterized by significant increases in net premium, investment income, profit before tax, and profit after tax. EPS for the year ending Dec 2023 came at Rs 0.84 compared to Rs 0.25 last year; growing almost 2.4 times. No dividend however. Financial Highlights: Net Premium:  Increased from Rs. 5.8 billion in 2022 to Rs. 7.685 billion in 2023, indicating a growth rate of approximately 33%. Investment Income:  Rose from Rs. 1.639 billion in 2022 to Rs. 2.505 billion in 2023, marking an impressive growth rate of around 53%. Profit Before Tax (PBT):  Showed a substantial increase from Rs. 60.2 million in 2022 to Rs. 224.8 million in 2023, reflecting a growth rate of approximately 2.7 times. Profit After Tax (PAT):  Escalated from Rs. 42 million in 2022 to Rs. 142.69 million in 2023, indicating a remarkable growth of 2.4 times. Tax Rat...

Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan in its meeting of 18 Mar 2024, decided to hold the line on interest rates.  Here's a breakdown of their decision: Interest Rate Unchanged: The MPC kept the policy rate at 22%. Reasoning: Inflation is starting to go down as expected. However, inflation is still high and could rise again due to people expecting high prices. Goal: Bring inflation down to 5-7% by September 2025. Conditions: This depends on the government controlling spending and getting expected money from outside Pakistan. Overall, the MPC is being cautious by keeping interest rates high to fight inflation. They're hoping this, along with government actions, will bring prices under control. Download MPC Statement