Last week, the Finance Minister was vocal about the government's endeavors to bring interest rates to single digits.
However, such expectations contrast with the reality that no measures have been introduced to alter the public finances structure responsible for the breakdown conditions and near-disaster that kept policy rates elevated at 22% for nearly a year, seriously hampering economic activity.
The Pak Rupee-USD parity stubbornly remains unchanged, and even the voices that once predicted it would fall below 250 have now fallen silent.
The black hole of the energy sector remains voracious, with no sign of either power rates coming down or a resolution to the circular debt.
The recent sharp decline in policy rates is primarily the result of stepping back from the brink and reducing the associated risk premium. However, government revenues remain stagnant, and harsh taxation measures reflect panic in public finance management. This is not an environment conducive to calming economic nerves or bringing interest rates into single digits.
As long as our export earnings remain stagnant and rooted in a specific sector, we will continue to depend on pleading for occasional breathing space and short-term relief in meeting our foreign obligations.
And the tragedy is that we have faced this situation several times before.
In the early nineties, it was assumed that privatization would reduce governmental obligations and pressure on revenues. But four key entities were excluded, this reduced the effect that required on alleviating the pressure on government revenues.
The second assumption was that providing electricity to the system would spur economic activity. However, since the sector remained anchored in sovereign guarantees, foreign investment in the power sector only exacerbated the issue further.
But interestingly, the only sector that Pakistan boasts as having been successful in privatization and brought onto a sound footing is the banking sector—the sector to which our current finance minister belongs. Few expected the banking sector to be privatized successfully. Mushtaq Ahmad Yusufi, in his distinctive style, noted that the denationalization of Pakistan's banking sector was 'like putting toothpaste back in the tube.'
So, at least one solid footing exists.