Gold prices rose on Tuesday after falling for two days due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Reports suggested that Lebanese troops withdrew from the border with Israel as an Israeli ground invasion seemed likely after Israel killed Hezbollah's leader. This escalation increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold. However, gains were limited by Fed Chair Powell's comments that the recent large interest rate cut should not signal future aggressive cuts. He hinted at smaller future cuts of a quarter percentage point. The odds of another 50-basis-point rate cut in November have now dropped to 37% from over 50% last week.
Oil prices were under pressure this week. Brent crude oil futures fell 1.9% to $73 per barrel on Friday, registering the biggest weekly loss since early September, with prices dropping over 7%. The decline was attributed to weaker demand forecasts from OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA), slowing economic growth in China, and signs of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Both OPEC and the IEA revised down their demand forecasts for 2024 and 2025. China's refinery output declined for the sixth consecutive month, impacted by weak fuel demand and the growing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil production reached a new record last week. Although a drawdown in U.S. crude inventories and stronger-than-expected retail sales in September provided some support to oil prices, easing concerns about a broader conflict in the Middle East exerted additional downward pressure on the market.