PakStox Outlook

Years ago, while trying my hand with a relational-database, making data-sets, and trying its query process, I learned something about the thinking process. Something that I had always taken for granted and had assumed that I was 'rational' and organized in my thinking. My small database project really enhanced my own #thinking process. I noticed how important it was to keep your 'query' structured and rational. If your 'query' is not properly made, you will not get any useful results from your data-set. That is, the results will not be meaningful, and the 'results' from your 'query' will not increase your understanding of your data-set. It appeared, that before I structure a query, I must have a general idea of possible answers to my questions, and shape my queries (i.e., questions) accordingly. So before reaching a conclusion on anything that you want to understand or resolve, you have to make sure that the question itself is not absurd and tha...

Cotton futures dropped to a 9-month low of around 100 USd/Lbs. This is the lowest since September last year and down 35% from its 11-year high of $158 in May. World recession fears, Better crop outlook,  USDA reduced world demand projections by 450,000 bales in its June report, and revised its production estimates higher to 121 mill bales. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/cotton

Malaysian palm oil futures at lowest level since July 2021 Supply is outpacing demand. Malaysia exports for June fell  Malaysia production expected to increase  Malaysia's palm oil inventories likely climbed to their highest levels in seven months. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/palm-oil

Brent, WTI down 3.3% and 4.6% at $111 and 105.7 on demand fears as the Fed increases rates to fight inflation. WTI has reached back  at a level it found support after prices rose in Mar22 due to Ukraine war. Since then, WTI has twice tried to break above $ level but failed to sustain.

After last week's euphoria, the stock market remained declining this week. The KSE100 Index lost 1050 points and closed at 45,553 down 2.26% for the week ending 22April.  Individuals remained on the sidelines after higher participation last week. Next week being roll over week was also a consideration for Individuals. PSX showed a massive rise of 4.8% last week; in view of which it was expected that market participants would assess the economic and political situation this week and concrete signs of progress. One negative development this week was higher cut off, of 3Months paper by 70 bps. See this . This increased Kibor to 13.84% today. 'Mutual Funds' consequently were net sellers this week. Their selling this week was higher than their trend in the last couple of weeks. Market was not under any selling pressure for several weeks now. This week on account of Mutual Funds was odd. Earnings season has started this week in full swing with several companies announcing good ...

KSE100 Index added 2150 points this week and closed at 46,602, up 4.85% over previous week. Trading volume also increased substantially. Rupee also strengthened by around Rs 8/-. This shows the level of confidence in the new administration after the dramatic event around vote of no confidence against PTI government last week. The new coalition Administration still has to take shape though. Till this evening cabinet has not been formed.  "Foreigners' continued to be net sellers except last day of the week. As usual selling remained restricted to banking sector. In overall terms including Overseas Pakistanis, it was net buying by $1.23mn for the week. Individuals were major net buyers. Mutual Funds massive net sellers for the week to the tune of $9.89mn. Insurance companies were also massive net sellers and sold more than $7mn worth of shares in the week. As Kibor of +13% corporates and Mutual Funds preferred to be in money market and took advantage of  liquidity in the market ...

Good build up by PSX on yesterday's historic performance. KSE100 Index today added 262 points closing at 46,407 up 0.6%. Traded volume just slightly less today remaining 493mn shares. Market was mostly in red till 1pm. Foreigners were as usual net sellers in Banks. Good activity by 'Individuals' after a long time. Mutual Funds just slightly net sellers today. YTD Funds have been net sellers of  more than $66mn worth of shares. Insurance sectors another major seller have year to date have net selling of over $16mn. Rupee gained further against US dollar and was up by 90 paisas. The annual inflation rate in the US rose  to 8.5% in March of 2022. This is the highest since December of 1981. In February before the impact of high oil prices following Ukraine war the inflation was recorded 7.9%, i.e. at 40 years high. Market expectations for March 2022 was 8.4%.  Core reading was however below expectations, indicating that inflation could be peaking. DJI added 100 points on t...