PakStox Outlook

KSE100 Index added 2150 points this week and closed at 46,602, up 4.85% over previous week. Trading volume also increased substantially. Rupee also strengthened by around Rs 8/-. This shows the level of confidence in the new administration after the dramatic event around vote of no confidence against PTI government last week. The new coalition Administration still has to take shape though. Till this evening cabinet has not been formed.  "Foreigners' continued to be net sellers except last day of the week. As usual selling remained restricted to banking sector. In overall terms including Overseas Pakistanis, it was net buying by $1.23mn for the week. Individuals were major net buyers. Mutual Funds massive net sellers for the week to the tune of $9.89mn. Insurance companies were also massive net sellers and sold more than $7mn worth of shares in the week. As Kibor of +13% corporates and Mutual Funds preferred to be in money market and took advantage of  liquidity in the market ...

Good build up by PSX on yesterday's historic performance. KSE100 Index today added 262 points closing at 46,407 up 0.6%. Traded volume just slightly less today remaining 493mn shares. Market was mostly in red till 1pm. Foreigners were as usual net sellers in Banks. Good activity by 'Individuals' after a long time. Mutual Funds just slightly net sellers today. YTD Funds have been net sellers of  more than $66mn worth of shares. Insurance sectors another major seller have year to date have net selling of over $16mn. Rupee gained further against US dollar and was up by 90 paisas. The annual inflation rate in the US rose  to 8.5% in March of 2022. This is the highest since December of 1981. In February before the impact of high oil prices following Ukraine war the inflation was recorded 7.9%, i.e. at 40 years high. Market expectations for March 2022 was 8.4%.  Core reading was however below expectations, indicating that inflation could be peaking. DJI added 100 points on t...

Historic one day rise of KSE100. High volume of over 550mn shares. PTI government ousted. Coalition takes power. New PM announces some populist economic measures; increases minimum wage, increases pensions. 46,145  1,700 (3.83%) 'Overseas Pakistan' good amount of net buying, $2.46mn, restricted to two counters. Mutual Funds and Insurance Companies were massive net sellers today, taking advantage of market activity they sold $7.8mn and $5mn respectively. Individuals were net buyers of $11.3mn. WTI crude futures trading below $94 dropping close to 5%. This lowest in over three weeks. Decline attributed to China lockdown, a major consumer, and announcements of other major consumer economies plans release crude from strategic reserves.  

KSE 100 Index closed at 44,444 up 1.5% adding 658 points despite increase in policy rate by 250bps.  The market gave a resounding yes to the Supreme Court verdict yesterday of restoring National Assembly and making way for political process. It was a broad based rally taking all sectors with it. Volatility in the market was low and the KSE100 Index closed in its upper band. Overall market volumes increased from 141 mn shares in last session to 227 mn shares. Foreigners were net sellers of $2.26mn mainly in Banks and 'Oil&gas'. Overseas Pakistanis were net sellers. In 'locals' all were positive except 'Insurance'. Today even Mutual Funds were marginally net buyers. In YTD Mutual Funds have been major net sellers to tune of $58mn. see details. Rupee also appreciated by Rs. 3.5, after having faced a panic bout against dollar. Rupee today closed at 184.68 against yesterday closing of 188.18. See details

Yesterday the Supreme Court of Pakistan gave its verdict on the dissolution of the National Assembly following a Speaker disputed ruling that declared those supporting the No confidence motion against the PM, as traitors and part of a conspiracy to de-seat the Government.  The Court Declared; a) ruling of Speaker Unconstitutional, b) PM's advise to President Unconstitutional, c) Dissolution of NA by President Unconstitutional, d) Vote of No-confidence remains intact & its 7th day will be on April 9th, e) Speaker to call NA session on April 9th, cannot change date. Here is the full verdict in pdf . An important session of the National Assembly was called on Sunday (3rd April 2022) to vote on the no confidence motion. This was after almost a week of intense street gatherings and agitation by the Government as well as by the oppositions. 

KSE100 Index today lost 324 points closing down 0.74% at 43,787 . Major contributors to the index were banks. Today political uncertainty continued as Supreme Court of Pakistan hears a key case to decide on the fate of political process,  In addition to that increase in cut off yield in yesterday's T Bill auction taking 6 Months T Bill rate to 13.25%, also impacted the market negatively. Today's trading volume was better than yesterday's showing some bargain hunting. As expected, the SBP held an emergent meeting of MPC and increased policy rate by 2.5% to 12.25%. See SBP Tweet . Foreign reserves declined by 5.8%. See details . Rupee under severe speculative pressure and touched 189. Pakistan Eurobond offer highest yield in the world now. See this tweet . I doubt if a lot of volume traded on this though. Supreme Court of Pakistan is about to announce its verdict on constitutional impasse created by a wrong and mischievous ruling of deputy speaker sitting for the Speaker...

KSE100 Index closed at 44,111 up 0.42% adding 183 points. Another day of political limbo as the case of dissolution of the National Assembly drags on. This vacuum is seriously impacting the economy. Rupee today weakened further and now touching 187 to a dollar. Another negative that might impact the market tomorrow is the rising rates in todays T Bills auction . In today's T-Bill auction, cut-off yields were up by 60-80bps. 6 Months T Bill cut off was 13.25%. Today Crude dropped by 4% to $97 level on news that IEA would release 120 million barrels of oil to cool prices. Also demand appears to be weak.