Based on Wood Mackenzie’s latest report warning that global crude demand will keep rising until at least 2032, the following points outline what this means for future oil price trends:
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Sustained Demand Growth:
Wood Mackenzie expects global crude demand to continue increasing through 2032, driven by transport and petrochemicals. This persistent demand base will likely support oil prices over the medium term. -
Slower Energy Transition:
The energy transition is proving slower and costlier than expected, ensuring hydrocarbons remain central to the global energy mix. This delays any structural decline in oil demand, keeping prices resilient. -
Investment Constraints:
Underinvestment in new oil supply, partly due to ESG pressures and policy uncertainty, could lead to supply tightness, putting upward pressure on prices. -
Energy Security Priority:
Many governments are prioritizing energy security over decarbonization, reinforcing continued oil and gas use, especially in developing economies — a demand stabilizer. -
Massive Capital Gap:
The report’s projection that achieving net zero would require $4.3 trillion per year in investment highlights how unlikely a rapid shift away from fossil fuels is, strengthening the case for sustained oil reliance.
Overall:
The Wood Mackenzie analysis suggests a “higher-for-longer” oil price trajectory — with demand growth, constrained supply, and slow transition efforts combining to keep prices elevated well into the 2030s, despite short-term market fluctuations.
