Hub Power Company Ltd (HUBC) held its analyst briefing today. Key points discussed:
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HUBC posted consolidated NPAT of PKR 46.1bn (EPS: PKR 33.4) for FY25, down 34% YoY, mainly due to the expiry of the base plant’s PPA on Oct 12, 2024.
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The company now operates across multiple sectors—power generation (2,289MW), E&P, D.T. 60%, coal mining (1.67m TPA), and an EV assembly venture in Karachi—as it transitions from a pure power utility to a diversified conglomerate.
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Under Mega Motor Co., HUBC launched BYD models (Atto 3, Seal, Dolphin, Shark 6). Since launch in Feb’25, 2,000 units have been sold, with demand expected to remain strong.
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The CKD assembly plant under construction will have a Phase-1 capacity of 25,000 units annually (expandable to 50,000). Capex is US$150mn with a 60:40 debt-equity mix. Term sheets with lenders are in place, with financial close expected soon.
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BYD holds no equity stake in Mega Motors—Pakistan is the first market where BYD is supporting assembly operations without ownership.
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Hubco Green EV Ltd. is developing a nationwide EV charging network, targeting stations every 150–200km along the Karachi–Peshawar motorway in partnership with PSO, Parco Gurun, and APL.
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Charging infrastructure costs have fallen sharply due to broader availability of Chinese technology. Management estimates breakeven at 3–4 vehicles per charging station per day.
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Base-load plants CPHGC, TEL, and TNPTL remain in NTDC’s top-15 merit order. Thar coal plants continue to deliver strong availability and foreign-exchange savings of around US$290mn per year.
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TEL and TNPTL are expected to achieve project completion in 2HCY25, with final scheduling under discussion.
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FY25 availability factors were: CPHGC 92%, NL 24%, TEL 48%, CPHGC (error in source) 6%, TEL (repeat) 61%, TNPTL 67%. Management expects better utilization as T&D infrastructure improves, especially in the south.
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CPPA-G receivables have improved; overdue amounts as of Aug’25 were PKR 53bn (CPHGC), PKR 12bn (TEL), and PKR 18bn (TNPTL).
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Dividends from CPHGC exceeded expectations and surpassed the ROE component for the year.
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Narowal Electric (NEL) will continue generating cash, though at lower levels than prior years.
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Ark Metals, the mineral exploration subsidiary, is conducting drilling work. Its first reserve estimate is expected in FY26 and will shape project investment plans.
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In upstream E&P, Prime has added two new blocks (Sikharpur II and Nara Sharif II) and acquired a stake in the Baran Block (operated by Polish Oil & Gas Co.). The company is also exploring offshore opportunities in South Africa, Egypt, Morocco, Cameroon, and Namibia.
