Cement dispatches rebounded strongly in 2QFY25, rising 23% QoQ to 9.9 million tons. This positive momentum carried into early 3QFY25, reducing the 8MFY25 decline to 6% YoY—an improvement from earlier trends.
This recovery followed a challenging 1QFY25, where local dispatches dropped ~20% YoY and 7% QoQ to 8.1 million tons. The decline was driven by a sharp increase in bag prices due to a rise in FED per bag from Rs. 2 to Rs. 4, along with dealer strikes over new taxation measures in the FY25 budget.
For FY25, local cement dispatches are now expected to decline by 4% YoY to 36.8 million tons, a more optimistic outlook compared to the previously estimated 8% drop. Looking ahead to FY26, dispatches are projected to grow by 9% to 40.1 million tons, supported by lower interest rates, increased construction activity, higher government spending, and a low base from FY24.
Coal prices have fallen to approximately US$90/ton in March 2025, down from US$97/ton in February 2025 and US$106/ton in 2024. Prices for both local and Afghan coal have also declined, with local coal dropping due to reduced duties to Rs. 36–37k/ton, while Afghan coal has decreased proportionally.