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head above water

KSE100 closed flat +26 points at  44,551. Traded 62.8mn shares of $20.6mn worth. Both volume and value traded remained less than yesterday. Weekend considerations in addition to national political situation and worsening Ukraine issue kept the market under pressure. In first half of today's trading session Market ignited hopes of strong upward movement. Unfortunate bomb blast at Peshawar taking around 60 lives dented sentiments however. Positive close nonetheless shows resilience of Market at current level.


Foreigners today sold on 'Oil & Gas' counter. That was a bit more than usual selling. Mutual Funds were just slightly net sellers today. This is encouraging. A big block on 'food' counter shifted hands making 'individuals' net sellers and 'brokers' net buyers. Banks behavior is heartening. They appear to be consistent buyers in these PSX conditions and are top Net buyers YTD followed by 'Companies'. 

Coming out of FATF Gray List remains elusive for Pakistan. Increasingly this is being seen as international politics issue rather than procedural. Considering the fact that Pakistan has completed most of the requirements and remains stuck has dampened hopes of any change at FATF level with any increase in administrative effort. dice are loaded.

No clear trend though in thinly traded market under cloud of various fears. There is reason of optimism since it closed in green and saw no major selling pressure.

Skyrocketing commodities price; Oil above $114, Coal above $400 remains a huge cause of concern although an argument could be made that these prices are 'event related' and will not persist. International markets are highly volatile as supply chains getting disrupted. 

Russia being a linchpin of traded commodities and providing key agriculture related supplies, the sanction will reverberate in the world supply chain with Covid like long term effects. Have look in the following snap of commodities price level now.


This uncertainty about risk assets has increased focus on Gold - currently trading at $1960. The uncertainty may be gauged by VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) that has increased by 47% in one month. 



All this against the existing backdrop of Fed tightening, increasing inflation and international markets being at record high level. keep your fingers in certain formation.






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