PakStox Outlook

Pakistan is among the highest recipients of IMF loans. However, it is important to note that Pakistan's IMF debt as a percentage of its GDP is the lowest among comparable countries. The top three recipients all have larger economies than Pakistan and a debt-to-GDP ratio of more than 3%, whereas Pakistan's ratio is less than 2%. Debt-to-GDP ratio is a measure used to assess a country's ability to pay back its debt relative to the size of its economy. A lower ratio generally indicates that a country is managing its debt more effectively compared to its economic output. For a broader meaningful comparison, it is essential to exclude Argentina and Ukraine, as they are special cases due to their unique economic and political circumstances. Additionally, smaller African countries should be left out of the comparison because their economic contexts differ significantly. ( IMF data ) This leaves Egypt as the most relevant country for comparison. Egypt, like Pakistan, has a geopolit...

Less than $150 million of net buying by 'foreign corporates' since the middle of last year has pushed the KSE100 Index to a record high, rising around 70% and breaching the 75,000 level. Though the valuations are still attractive, consider the fact that if this modest inflow has pushed the market this high, imagine where the market would be if even half of the $1.5 billion outflow since 2018 returned to the PSX. Note that within the five-year period from 2018 to the end of 2022, foreigners withdrew $1.5 billion from the Pakistani market. This highlights the shallowness and limited size of the Pakistani market. Local fund managers face a challenging environment, grappling with foreign capital flows on the one hand and the realities of Pakistan's political and economic situation on the other. In the months before foreigners entered the PSX, specifically before the middle of last year, the market touched absurdly low levels due to foreign outflows and high interest rates, with...

For the 3rd quarter ending March 2024, NETSOL reported a profit after tax of Rs. 64.3 million, compared to a profit after tax of Rs. 1,403 million over the same quarter last year, registering a massive decrease of 95.4%. The earnings per share came out at Rs. 0.73 for the quarter. NETSOL did not announce any cash dividends along with the results announcement. On a 9-month basis, NETSOL's profit after tax was Rs. 869.9 million, compared to a profit after tax of Rs. 1,432.5 million in the same period last year. Registering a decline of 39%. The gross profit margin in this quarter was 44%, compared to 33% in the same quarter last year. The tax rate in this quarter was 36%, compared to 4% in the same quarter last year. Revenue of NETSOL for the quarter  increased by 8.1%, gross profit increased by 42.2%, and financial charges increased by 64.7% compared to the same quarter last year.  The significant decrease in net income for this quarter compared to last year, despite an incre...

For the first quarte ending March 2024, Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Limited (FFBL) reported a profit after tax of Rs. 4,306 million, compared to a loss after tax of Rs. 5,429 over the same quarter last year. The earnings per share came out at Rs. 3.33 for the quarter. FFBL did not announce any cash dividends along with the results announcement. The gross profit margin in this quarter was 19%, compared to 7% in the same quarter last year. And the tax rate for the quarter was 47%. Revenue of FFBL, in this quarter, increased almost one and a half times, gross profit increased by over three times, and financial charges halved, compared to same quarter last year. This turned a loss of Rs. 5.4 billion last year to a PAT of 4.3 billion this quarter. In the same quarter last year, FFBL recorded a significant exchange loss of over Rs. 4.6 billion, whereas this quarter saw a negligible amount in comparison. Furthermore, FFBL's other income for this quarter exceeded Rs. 4 billion, a stark cont...

This week, oil could have ended with a gain after dropping for several weeks since early April when Brent peaked above $91.      On Friday, Brent initially rose above $84 on declining US inventory, climbing more than a dollar over the previous week. However, oil prices fell from the week's high as comments from U.S. central bank officials indicated a likelihood of higher interest rates for a longer period.  For the week, Brent crude futures settled at $82.79 a barrel, marking a 0.2% loss, while WTI recorded a 0.2% rise.      Looking ahead, oil will navigate between expectations of a robust US driving season, Chinese demand, and geopolitical factors in the coming week. Next week, U.S. inflation data could influence Fed decisions on rates. In other development, at the start of the week, Saudi Arabia raised the price of its oil to customers in Asia, including China, ahead of an OPEC+ meeting on production targets next month. This marked the third consecut...

PSO | Pakistan State Oil Company Limited Earning Release Q3-Mar 2024 For the quarter ending March 2024; PSO reported a profit after tax of Rs. 5,647 million, registering a huge decline of 59% over the same quarter last year. The earnings per share came out at Rs. 12.03 for the quarter. PSO did not announce any cash dividends along with the results announcement. Note that over the course of the last one year, PSO has distributed a total of Rs. 7.5 per share as cash dividends. On a 9-month basis, PSO registered growth of 30% , however. It announced a PAT of Rs. 13,397 million (EPS Rs. 28.5) , compared to a PAT of Rs. 10,285 million in the same period last year. Such is the volatility in the profitability of the PSO. To provide historical context to the earnings, note that on a twelve-month trailing basis, PSO has recorded a profit after tax of Rs. 8,774 million, compared to a profit after tax of Rs. 16,773 million last year. This also shows a substantial decline. PSO booked a tax revers...

NML | Nishat Mills Limited Earning Release Q3-Mar 2024 For the quarter ending March 2024; NML reported a loss after tax of Rs. 285.8 million, compared to PAT of Rs. 3,300 million last year. The loss per share came out at Rs. 0.81 for the quarter. Last quarter EPS was Rs. 9.4. NML did not announce any cash dividends along with the results announcement. Note that over the course of the last one year, NML has distributed a total of Rs. 5 per share as cash dividends. On a 9-month basis, NML announced a PAT of Rs. 5,348 million, compared to a PAT of Rs. 11,136 million in the same period last year. To provide historical context to the earnings, note that on a twelve-month trailing basis, NML has recorded a profit after tax of Rs. 6,378 million, compared to a profit after tax of Rs. 9,964 million last year, registering a decline of 52%. Analysis of Profit & Loss To better comprehend changes in profit and loss in this quarter over last year, note that, > the revenue increased by 16.7% ...